Winning, and still in the red.
A positive win rate does not protect you from the short term. Enter your numbers and see the downswing a real winning player can sit through — and the risk of going broke before the edge shows.
The idea
Variance is noise, not bad luck.
With a standard deviation of 90, a 3bb/100 winner can run 100,000 hands at a loss. That is not a leak — it is the normal noise of the game. A bankroll exists to keep you at the table long enough for the edge to surface.
Variance and downswings
Even a winning player goes through long stretches in the red.
Your average profit per 100 hands. 2-5 is good.
The volatility. In NL Hold'em it is around 80-100.
How many full buy-ins you have.
Expected result
+3,000 bb
Over those hands, on average
Ending at a loss
14.6%
Probability despite being a winner
10.8%
With that win rate and that bankroll, the risk of losing it all is 10.8%. And even as a winner, you have a 14.6% chance of finishing those hands in the red. Variance is not bad luck: it is the normal noise of the game.